Chapter 3 Keeping a low profile

No one dies unexpectedly.

An Wujiu's purpose at this moment is the same as everyone present, to become a survivor in the game. In this warm-up match, he needs to do two things.

1. You cannot win.

2. Quietly prompt Yang Ming to win.

Losing is actually very simple. If you choose 1 or 100, you will definitely lose, but it is too dazzling. At first glance, you will give up. The difficulty of this game is that the loss is not obvious. It is necessary to make Yang Ming and others believe that they are not "as strong" as the legend through the results. In this way, other people's fear and defense of him can be alleviated.

The thin rain fell on the round table, wrapped in the smell of chemical raw materials and soil, which was terrifyingly real.

time is limited.

The original purpose of playing this game with positive thinking is to predict the results of others through analysis, so that the number you choose is closer to the average value of the numbers selected by everyone.

What about the other way around?

If he wants Yang Ming to be the person closest to 1/2 of the mean, he needs to predict the numbers of other people and the numbers Yang Ming may choose, and finally decide which number he wants to write.

To achieve the desired result, An Wu Jiu needs to guess as far as possible the range of numbers for each candidate.

The options are between 1 and 100. Assuming that there are enough rational players in the game, too many to ignore personal preferences, the guessed numbers will be evenly distributed between 1 and 100, and the average will be around 50. , after taking 1/2, the selectable numbers are further reduced, from [1,100] to [1,50], and it is impossible to choose more than 50 to become half of the mean. According to the probability or median, the number that everyone will generally guess is half the mean of 50, which is 25.

Pick numbers above 25, and your odds of winning will be greatly reduced.

Choosing a number that is too large will cause a psychological burden, and you will be afraid that you will become a person who will be averaged out. Under this psychology, choosing a smaller number is a safe card.

But this is only the first layer of logic.

If everyone realizes this and follows this layer of logic, the selected number will generally fall below 25, so that the final 1/2 of the mean will shift down again, becoming around 12.5. And so on, the next layer is 6.25...

Players in the first tier will guess 1/2 of the mean in their minds.

The player on the second tier guesses what he thinks the average is in the minds of others.

Even 1/2 what they think, others think others think...

As the player's logic level deepens, the final guess will become smaller and smaller, until the number 1, because no player will think that others will choose a smaller number than himself. This equilibrium state is the Nash equilibrium.

Therefore, the most difficult part of this game is not to guess the average, but to guess which level of thinking mode of the eight contestants currently on the field is.

Therefore, after learning the rules of the game, An Wujiu devoted all his energy to observation, which was the only way he could obtain information from strangers in a short period of time. A person's thinking mode is largely formed by the day after tomorrow, depending on life experience and education, and the thinking mode will in turn affect his dress and behavior.

Liu Chengwei has never gone to school or received basic education, so he probably won't know game theory.

An Wu Jiu glanced at Liu Chengwei and found that he did not write the answer decisively, but scratched his head and thought hard for a while.

But when you get this kind of question, you can always think of the number close to the middle. For Liu Chengwei's level, the probability that the mean value is 50 is the greatest.

When looking at the others, An Wu Jiu suddenly realized that when he woke up, the panel displayed the fifth level, I don't know if the other players are the same, but at least one thing is - no one is a novice. Because no one was overly flustered, unfamiliar with the rules, and no one broke down when they saw the offenders being shot.

These survivors have gone through the previous rounds and survived, and this round is not a novice round. According to the difficulty of this warm-up game, there are probably similar projects before.

The survivors who have survived to this day are not fools.

The youngest Wu You... An Wu Jiu finds it very strange that such a young child can enter such a life-or-death game, just by looking at his clothes, he really doesn't seem like someone who can afford the cost of education, but when he mentioned When looking at the patterns on An Wu Jiu's neck, Wu You immediately mentioned the types of flowers, at least it showed that his family was not ordinary.

The layer with an average of 25 can definitely be imagined, but if he really chooses 25, he may also worry that someone will choose a smaller number and lower the average.

His answer is probably closer to the 12.5 first gear.

Ueno and Lao Yu seem to belong to a category of people who are cautious, afraid of fouls, and overthinking. Ueno wears glasses and has thin calluses on his finger pads after using the keyboard. It is probably a trace of long-term use of the keyboard, so he should be educated, even higher education. They should stand at a higher logical level than Liu Chengwei and Wu You, so it is about 6.25, and they can only choose a natural number, so that is 6.

An Wujiu fell into deep thought. It is not easy to think about 6 or so, and there will be risks if you continue to go down, because everyone's thinking depth is different. Even if you can think of deeper logic, you will worry that others will not think of it, so you give up choosing a smaller number.

What about Zhong Yirou?

She is very smart. This is An Wujiu's impression of her. She is skilled in interpersonal relationships and good at observation. Before other people understand the key to this game, she has already guessed Yang Ming's occupation. This intelligence gathering ability is definitely not ordinary people.

In addition, the distribution of her finger calluses is not like using a computer, plus the small scars, it is more like using a fine knife.

An Wu Jiu looked at the tool bag on her body again, the artificial leather on her calf and the modified palm.

It should be related to prosthetic modification or precision machinery.

But it is precisely because she is smart enough that her analysis of the previous people should be the same as her own. For her, Yang Ming and herself both need to be wary.

According to the information about An Wujiu given by Yang Ming, the useful information is nothing more than scheming, insidious and cunning, such an image will lead Zhong Yirou to believe that [An Wujiu will make very unexpected choices, such as very low numbers . ]

For her, the final result may be around 6. Once someone chooses a very small number, it may be just right to her position in the end if it is balanced with Liu Chengwei and others before.

Everyone's thoughts can only be speculated at the moment, An Wujiu is very clear, he is just guessing, the final result may be neither one.

However, there are good guesses and hard guesses. The most difficult thing for him was Shen Ti.

This guy is the only person on the field who has no flaws.

With a mask on his face, he can't see his appearance, and his clothes are not unique, and he has not even made a single statement so far. An Wu Jiu raised his head in thinking and looked in the opposite direction. But he found that the other party was looking at him.

The two looked at each other again, An Wu Jiu narrowed his eyes.

The other party is also watching him.

For everyone on the field, An Wu Jiao, who was described as a lunatic, was undoubtedly a dangerous time bomb, and I'm afraid Shen Ti was also very curious.

In the eyes of two people, each other is the biggest uncertainty factor, and it is the fault tolerance point of the other party. It's just that one person has no flaws, and one person is completely exposed.

wrong. An Wu Jiu looked down at the paper.

No flaw is the biggest flaw.

Shen Ti chose not to expose it at all, indicating that he understood the fundamentals of the game. Then the choices of the previous few people can also be predicted for him, there are at least two people who will choose a number higher than 6, so if Shen Ti wants to win, he will not choose a number that is too low.

But which number is between 6 and 12.5, An Wu Jiu can only bet.

At present, there is a number that may appear around 25, a number that may appear around 12.5, and three numbers that may appear around 6, not counting Shen Ti, Yang Ming and himself, the average number is about 11. Then 1/2 of the average will appear on 5 or 6.

It stands to reason that if the remaining three are people who are good at deep thinking, the number they will choose should be low, even to the third level. But it is precisely because of this that they understand the rules of how this game works, and what they will really do is not to guess deeper, but to get closer to the answers of others.

Shen Ti's full armor made An Wujiu feel something, and his intuition made him think that the other party would choose a lower number.

Since he can feel it, Yang Ming must also be able to.

The final number will not be higher than 6.

What will Yang Ming choose?

No, how would Yang Ming guess about himself?

An Wu Jiu looked at Yang Ming, the other party stared at the display screen, did not raise his head, frowned, seemed to be lost in thought.

"It's time to calculate. Now the results of the first round of the 'Moderate Mean' will be announced."

The handwriting screen in front of each of them casts new projections in the air in turn.

"Wu You: 13, Yu Guang: 6, Zhong Yirou: 6, Ueno Dacheng: 7, Liu Chengwei: 25.

Yang Ming: 5, Shen Ti: 6, An Wujiu: 8. "

"1/2 of the final average was 4.75, and the closest was Yang Ming's result. Yang Ming won."

Seeing the expected smugness and rare relaxation on Yang Ming's face, An Wu Jiu's heart sank.

His prediction was correct.

Yang Ming's level is the same as he imagined, and he can estimate the range of the average on the field, but for him, the estimation is useless, because there is a person he is afraid of.

After the previous conversation, An Wu Jiu already knew how dangerous he was in Yang Ming's mind, he was very scheming and good at disguising, he didn't play cards according to common sense, and he didn't look down on anyone else.

Therefore, playing steadily did not meet his expectations.

The character of Bai Qihei was given to him by Yang Ming An, An Wu Jiu had no choice but to use it.

He calculated Yang Ming's calculation for him, and finally wrote a result on the paper that should meet the other party's expectations. 8, a number that at first glance underestimates the level of others.

Although this can't really be regarded as an upright tactic, An Wu Jiu has no other way, he just wants to protect himself.

The final result was not too bad as imagined, but he was a little surprised that Shen Ti just happened to choose a 6. He would not have guessed that the results could not be evenly distributed.

like intentional.

"As expected of Brother Yang." Zhong Yirou changed her words, brushed the hair hanging from her shoulders, and smiled sweetly, "It's amazing."

"Luck, luck." The smile on Yang Ming's face couldn't be hidden. Building self-confidence is often so easy. It only takes a powerful opponent who was once evaded to lose to him in front of everyone's eyes.

"Hey, I thought some people were so powerful." Liu Chengwei sneered, "It's no different from people like us. In the end, he didn't even lose the warm-up game."

This is what An Wujiu expected. When Liu Chengwei said it, he even felt a sense of relief that his goal had been achieved.

Dramatically, it was Yang Ming who regarded him as a thorn in his side who spoke for An Wujiu.

"It's just an occasional stumble." He raised his eyebrows, "After all, I haven't done it in vain for so many years."

An Wu Jiu sat quietly, staring at his fingers that were still trembling slightly.

Because of the victory, a gift box popped up in front of Yang Ming, and it fell to him with blue light.

"Congratulations. Before announcing the advantages you have gained this round, initialize the game for everyone."

As soon as the voice fell, all the people on the round table floated up, dizzy, like the illusion caused by taking too much hallucinogen, the world wrapped in light pollution and air dust began to spin and collapse, and finally turned into a small dot, a white particle. .

Then, like an explosion, the particles expand into a whole new world at an uncapable speed.

Shengyin began to introduce the world view of the new round of the game: "This round of the game is called Red and Black Carnage. Terrorists attacked Miami with poisonous gas. The density of this poisonous gas is lower than that of air, and there are heavy casualties above the surface. When life and death are on the line, The eight of you came to the safe bunker under the office building by accident through the air defense passage."

"This is a miniature nuclear bunker that was secretly excavated and developed by the founder of Camiki Corporation. It is 18 meters deep underground. It is safe but closed, and the exit is destroyed. It can only be blasted from the outside. The survival resources here are very limited, and it is only enough for the eight of you to support. Four nights and five days."

The dust-like particles gradually gathered into pieces, and the pieces approached and spliced ​​together.

"In the bunker, a yellow energy bar will be displayed on the top of each of you. It is full when initialized, but with the hunger and thirst caused by the lack of materials, the energy value will continue to decrease. Post-zero will be considered dead and out."

"The current system time is 9:00 am. At 9:00 am on the fifth day, a rescue team will rescue everyone, of course, everyone who is alive."

As long as you reach 9 o'clock, it means that you have survived successfully.

"Does the rescue team have to dig for five days with just a few people?" It was Zhong Yirou's voice, "Is it saving people or archaeology?"

The eyes in front of him were too dazzling, An Wu Jiu's damaged vision made it difficult for him to adapt, and it took nearly ten seconds for his vision to become clear.

He heard Ueno's voice.

"Come to rescue us on the fifth day, are the supplies enough..."

After a while, the modeled world finally appeared before their eyes.

An Wujiu stared at the closed door in front of him and the "Passion of Jesus" painted on it.

It can't be that simple.

The author has something to say:

①The painting of the painter Raphael, depicting the scene of Jesus being crucified on the cross.

Volume II Red and Black Carnage